CAMPAIGN 2008: Smith's break with GOP on energy policy fuels campaign attacks

In a state where "green" credentials are a political necessity, Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith (R) is finding that even casting a string of pro-environment and pro-renewable energy votes can be a liability in a close race.

Over the last couple of weeks, Smith has sided with Senate Democrats on a series of energy matters -- voting in favor of moving ahead with debate on climate change legislation, in favor of the Democrats' gas price bill that sought to impose a windfall profit tax on oil companies along with other measures and in favor of a tax package that contains incentives for renewable energy.

In all three instances Smith broke with his party leadership and joined a handful of other GOP senators taking sides with Senate Democrats.

But while such votes would most likely be looked on favorably by the electorate in his Democratic-leaning home state that places a premium on environmental issues, Smith's opponent is attempting to use those votes to paint Smith as a lawmaker who shifts his positions with the political winds.

State House Speaker Jeff Merkley -- who late last month won a competitive Democratic primary for the right to face Smith -- has begun to hammer the two-term senator on what he describes as election year "flip flops" from Smith, which are designed to appease voters concerned about gas prices and to create distance from the unpopular Bush administration.

National Democrats have long eyed Smith's seat as one of their best pick-up opportunities in the 2008 cycle, in no small part because it sits in a state that is expected to vote solidly Democratic in this year's presidential race.

Democratic leaders in Washington attempted to recruit several members of the state's congressional delegation to challenge Smith, but even as those efforts failed they remain optimistic that Merkley can topple the incumbent senator.

Smith has already assembled a war chest that tops $9 million and has plenty of money in the bank. Unlike Merkley, Smith did not have to face a primary challenge. But Merkley is expected to have no shortage of funds or party support in the campaign.

The most recent poll in the race -- conducted in early May -- showed Smith leading Merkley, 45 percent to 42 percent.

In the early stages of the campaign, Smith has made a substantial effort to highlight his moderate credentials.

"Moderate, independent, bipartisan -- that's Gordon Smith," says a recent television ad from the Smith campaign, which goes on to highlight renewable energy and a cleaner environment as key issues for the senator.

Indeed, Smith is generally viewed as being among the more moderate members of the Republican caucus and he has broken with the Bush administration on a string of important policy matters, including the Iraq war and other hot button issues.

But the Merkley campaign and Washington Democrats argue that in the overwhelming majority of cases Smith still votes with Bush and GOP leaders -- putting him out-of-step with the relatively liberal Oregon electorate -- and in particular they say Smith has a track-record on adopting the GOP position on energy policy.

And though energy policy is only one of several issues that is likely to play a prominent role in the election, experts say voters in the Northwest state generally place a high premium on such issues and if the anti-green charges actually stick to Smith they could pose problems for him come November.

Flip-flop attacks Even before Smith cast the votes on the Democrats' gas price bill and renewable energy tax package last week, Merkley's campaign issued a "Flip-Flop Alert," saying Smith was switching "his positions on important issues in an election year to pretend he is moderate, independent, and bipartisan."

The first such "Flip-Flop Alert" went out a week earlier and focused specifically on the climate change bill that eventually failed. Others are expected to follow on energy policy and a slew of other issues.

"Up until recently, he was really in lockstep of the Inhofes of the world denying the affects of global warming," said Merkley campaign spokesman Matt Canter, referring to noted global warming skeptic Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.). "And like a chameleon he wants to forget about that because it puts him far, far out of step with Oregonians."

Thus far, reaction to Smith's votes has been somewhat mixed.

The Portland Oregonian praised the senator in an editorial for voting in favor of the Lieberman-Warner climate bill, describing Smith's epiphany as overdue but welcome. "Smith's detractors will call him a flip-flopper," wrote the paper. "Yet Oregon's Republican senator can now indeed say he tried to do something about global warming, and even though he's late to the party, good for him."

Smith voted against the somewhat
similar versions of the climate change bill in both 2003 and 2005. And Smith indicated in a speech that he made on the Senate floor that while he thought the debate on climate legislation should go forward, he did not specifically commit to voting in favor of that particular climate change bill.

"[It is] time for America -- and this
Congress -- to debate the merits of a new system to regulate carbon to reduce greenhouse gas -- reduce this country's 'carbon footprint,'"
Smith said on the floor. "I know we can come together -- in this chamber and with the next president -- to practically and effectively reduce the greenhouse gas we emit in this country."

Liberal bloggers and various Merkley allies, meanwhile, have attacked both Smith and the newspaper, describing his vote as simply an effort to save his political career and arguing that the senator becomes more "green" in election years.

"I think Gordon Smith is viewed differently here than he is in Washington," said Tresa Horney, a spokeswoman with the Oregon League of Conservation Voters. "He has a pattern of improving his environmental score every time there's an election."

Horney pointed to the fact that Smith's lifetime score from the League of Conservation Voters is below 30 percent but in 2007 it jumped to 73 percent.

Beside the climate change vote, the Merkley campaign has also attempted to highlight Smith's votes from years past in which he voted against windfall profits legislation, against repealing oil company tax breaks and in one instance against greater regulation of oil company markets.

Merkley's supporters also say they will be able to draw a sharp contrast between the candidates by highlighting the slew of pro-environment bills that Merkley shepherded through the statehouse, including a 25 percent renewable electricity standard, incentives for biofuel production and renewable energy tax credits.

Smith campaign officials argue that the Republican senator has always been a strong advocate for environmental issues and that voters are unlikely to buy into the campaign attacks that seek to question his record.

"Senator Smith is proud to be a part of the bipartisan coalition fighting for a cleaner environment and secure, independent energy sources," said Smith campaign spokeswoman Lindsay Gilbride. "From promoting renewable energies and voting to end excessive tax breaks for big oil to working with Senator Obama to increase fuel efficiency, Senator Smith is a leader in the fight for a healthier environment."

Specifically, the Smith campaign is highlighting not only his recent votes, but his support of fuel efficiency legislation, the series of bills he has introduced related to renewable energy tax incentives and that he helped craft gas price gouging legislation. And just last week, Smith and fellow Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden (D) -- who has already endorsed Merkley -- cosponsored the Community College Sustainability Act, which would provide $100 million in grants to strengthen sustainability and renewable energy job training.

Will the argument work?

Campaign officials and independent observers say it is too early to tell if the flip-flopping charges will stick to Smith, especially as the senator has repeatedly tried to showcase his moderate credentials during his 12 years in the Senate.

William Lunch, an Oregon State University professor and an expert on state politics, said Smith's effort to establish a moderate identity stretches back to his 1996 special election defeat at the hands of Wyden, where polls showed that he lost the close race in no small part because he was perceived as hostile to environmental interests and women's issues.

"Ever since that time he has recognized that in order to be re-elected he needs to be seen as a moderate on those two issues and a number of other issues as well," Lunch said. "And Smith has not followed the full Republican line on those issues, which is politically wise in this state.

"Smith has been very perceptive and I think has read the political climate in the state quite well," Lunch added.

One such environmental issue where Smith has made a particular effort to highlight his willingness to buck the Republican party line is the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Smith has repeatedly voted against drilling in ANWR and during the 2002 campaign ran ads highlighting his opposition to such proposals.

"If you look at his voting record vote-by-vote he looks like a pretty conservative Republican, but on certain high profile issues such as ANWR ... on all of those sorts of things he doesn't necessarily tow the standard Republican line," Lunch said.

But environmentalists believe that it is exactly that issue that will also provide them with an opportunity to stick the "flip-flopping" label to Smith. In 2006, Smith voted in favor of a narrowly approved budget reconciliation bill that would have opened ANWR to drilling.

"You can fool people once and fool them again but I think people eventually catch on when you're being dishonest," said Horney of the Oregon LCV.

The Smith campaign argues that such statements cherry-pick provisions from much broader bills and ignore the fact that Smith has repeatedly voted against drilling in ANWR

And Horney admitted that  rank-and-file voters have relatively short memories and there is some concern among environmentalists that Smith's most recent votes will be enough to wipe out more long-term concerns about his environmental record.

At the same time, there is little dispute that environmental issues can be a relatively large factor in statewide elections -- at least more so than in most other parts of the country.

Theissue could be particular key in swinging a group of voters that are likely to play a major role in determining the outcome of the election -- namely moderate suburbanites. "They can be pivotal and the reason for that is because they get more attention among suburban voters,"

Lunch said. "Merkley's focus on environmental issues is part of a larger strategy for targeting key swing constituencies, which are primarily located in the suburbs."